Understanding how policy interventions affect development targets

International Futures (IF) is a long-term modeling system consisting of multiple integrated submodule search representing different dimensions of development. It can be used by development practitioners to gain analytical insights on the benefits of country reforms, SDG interventions or shocks. The model also contains an SDG module allowing the user to track how policy interventions affect SDG indicators and targets.

Country case

Yemen

UNDP together with the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures applied the IF model to analyse the impacts of the war in Yemen across human, social and economic dimensions of development, and to explore the potential of key interventions to mitigate these impacts. Four hypothetical scenarios were created: one where the conflict ended in 2019, one in 2022, another in 2030, and one where the conflict did not escalate beyond 2014 to assess the impacts across the three conflict scenarios. The analyses showed that Yemen will become the poorest country in the world if the conflict goes on through 2022, with 79 percent of the population living under the poverty line and 65 percent classified as extremely poor.

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