Understanding how policy interventions affect development targets

The International Futures (IFs) tool integrates long-range models of 12 core systems: agriculture, demographics, economics, education, energy, environment, government finance, governance, health, infrastructure, international politics and technology. The combined system facilitates forecasting for 186 countries and flexible country groupings with alternative scenarios through the SDG horizon of 2030 and 2100. The 12 sub-models include more than 600 variables that cut across all SDGs. IFs is packaged with more than 3,500 historical data series from a very wide range of data sources that facilitate cross-sectional analysis of SDG indicators across goals and targets.

The tool's scenario analysis feature is especially valuable for assessing the long-term impact of interventions within countries and across regions.

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Author

Enablers: 

Data and Analytics

English
Enablers

Themes: 

Integration Tools - Assessing SDG Progress and Alignment - Acceleration – System Thinking and Dynamic Simulation ModelsRisk-Informed Development Tools - Risk Assessment, Early Warning and Disaster Information Management

Function: 

Guidelines and diagnosticsSimulation models

Country case

Yemen

UNDP together with the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures applied the IF model to analyse the impacts of the war in Yemen across human, social and economic dimensions of development, and to explore the potential of key interventions to mitigate these impacts. Four hypothetical scenarios were created: one where the conflict ended in 2019, one in 2022, another in 2030, and one where the conflict did not escalate beyond 2014 to assess the impacts across the three conflict scenarios. The analyses showed that Yemen will become the poorest country in the world if the conflict goes on through 2022, with 79 percent of the population living under the poverty line and 65 percent classified as extremely poor.

Download the report here.